Shiprock, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

680
FXUS65 KABQ 080851
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
251 AM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 248 AM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

- A rapid warmup with dry conditions expected this week.
  Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal and around
  record values come mid to late this week.

- Breezy to locally windy conditions expected this afternoon and
  Wednesday afternoon across north central areas and the eastern
  highlands. Breezy to locally windy conditions areawide next
  weekend.

- Minor heat-related impacts are possible throughout the week for
  those outside for an extended period of time without taking
  proper precautions.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 248 AM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

A rapid warm up is in full swing today and will continue through the
rest of the week, outside of a brief pause in eastern New Mexico
Thursday due to a weak backdoor cold front. Temperatures rise up to
10 to 20 degrees above average by the weekend, with a good chance of
some record high temperatures being broken. Light winds prevail
through much of the week, outside of breezy west winds in north
central and northeast New Mexico today and Wednesday. Breezy to
windy conditions are likely to return Sunday across a majority of
the state, which will increase the risk of rapid fire spread after
days of dry and warm conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 AM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

Generally pleasant spring weather continues today, albeit with some
breezy conditions this afternoon, especially for the northern
mountains, central highlands, and southern mountains, as modest lee-
side troughing (which is already in place) persists through the day.
Max temps continue their robust upward trend, with the ABQ Metro and
much of the eastern Plains tacking on 10-15F from Monday`s realized
highs.  Even with efficient mixing in the warm, dry airmass, 700-mb
height gradients are fairly unimpressive for April, with 20-25KT WNW
flow in general.  In fact, NBM probabilities for reaching Wind
Advisory criteria (sustained 35mph winds and/or 50mph gusts) both
today and Wednesday are nil, apart from a 10% chance of 50mph on the
highest northern mountain peaks on Wednesday.  A fairly mild
overnight period is in store as well, with low temps mostly 5-10 deg
F above normal.

Heading into Wednesday, mid/upper-level heights gradually nudge
upward as riding builds into the AZ/CA deserts.  Spring warmth
continues to spread, especially for the central/lower RGV and SE
plains.  Latest NBM prog has a 54% chance for KABQ reaching 80F
(which is the deterministic forecast high), which would be the first
time hitting that mark in quite some time.  (See Climate section
below.)  Meanwhile, Roswell reaches the upper 80s.  Ridge building
upstream also acts to tilt the H7 flow to a more WNW direction,
yielding a similar level of breeziness as today. A weak perturbation
aloft also attempts to drag a weak Pacific front into
northern/northeastern NM, though any progress early on should be
shunted back eastward as westerlies mix down in the afternoon. Lee
troughing also briefly consolidates into a ~1005mb surface low over
far NE NM and the Panhandles region.  A back-door front then enters
the picture Wednesday night..more on that in the long-term
section.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 248 AM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

A 500mb ridge begins to push into the Desert Southwest Thursday,
while a backdoor cold front slides into eastern NM. This cold front
puts a brief pause to the continued warming trend of the week, but
will still leave high temperatures in the high 60s to high 70s
across the eastern plains. High 70s to high 80s are likely west of
the central mountain chain. While a weaker front, it pushes
through the central mountain chain Thursday night, where MOS
guidance is catching on to a breezy gap wind in the range of
15-25mph. Temperatures continue to warm through Friday as the
ridge axis sits squarely over the state. Even more warmth is very
likely Saturday with the addition of breezy to locally windy
downsloping west winds, in response to the ridge sliding eastward
and being in a regime of upper level southwest flow ahead of an
upper trough. Widespread high temperatures in the mid 80s to low
90s are likely throughout most lower elevation areas, good for
10-20F above average for early to mid April and potentially
breaking some record highs. For those who are fans of numbers, it
has been 190 days (September 30, 2024 to April 8, 2025) since
Albuquerque has seen a 90F degree day, and the current forecast
high for Saturday is 88F. This may be our first chance to see 90F
at KABQ in 2025.

The upper level trough mentioned previously continues to shift
eastward Sunday, placing more robust west-southwest flow over the
region. This setup is favorable for widespread breezy to windy
conditions across the region, and should be monitored by those with
outdoor plans this weekend. Temperatures fall slightly on Sunday as
the trough brings in lower pressure heights to western NM, though
downsloping west winds keep eastern NM near record temperatures.

One last mention for this discussion is the potential for minor
impacts from the heat later this week and into the weekend. With
such a swing from colder temperatures this past weekend, combined
with these likely to be the hottest days of the year so far, folks
may not take proper precautions when outdoors for extended periods
of time. It`ll be keen to stay hydrated and find protection from the
sun should heat-related impacts begin.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025

High (greater than 90%) confidence in VFR prevailing at all TAF
sites for the next 24 hours. High-level cirrus clouds can already
be seen moving into northwestern NM on IR satellite imagery.
Coverage of this high cloud will gradually increase and move into
all of the terminals by around 18Z as high-pressure ridging aloft
flattens. Westerly winds become breezy to gusty for Tuesday
afternoon as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 AM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

Minimum RH`s fall below 15% across all but the Tusas and Sangre de
Cristo zones both today and tomorrow (Wed).  However, recent
precipitation has moistened fuels, with ERC`s largely in the 50-75th
percentile range or lower.  ERC`s are a bit higher in the West
Central Basin and Range, but 20-ft winds remain below 10mph.  A back-
door cold front on Thursday provides some relief on the min RH`s
east of the central mountains through Friday.  Fire weather concerns
increase for the weekend, as fuels continue to dry, in particular
for the Middle RGV and portions of the Gila that missed out on much
of the recent precipitation.  RH`s fall to the single digits for
much of the area both Saturday and Sunday, as 20-ft winds increase
out of the WSW at 15-25mph on Saturday...and more widespread 20-
30mph winds on Sunday.  Right now, trend is for widespread Near
Critical, and pockets of Critical, fire weather conditions for
Saturday, with widespread Critical conditions appearing increasingly
likely for Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 248 AM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

A high temperature of 80F is forecast for the Albuquerque
International Sunport on Wednesday; this would be the first such
occurrence in 2025.  The last time 80F was reached there was on 28
Oct 2024 (84F).  Note that the Sunport reached 79F two times thus
far this year, on both 26 and 27 March.

The last 90F or greater high temperature at the the Sunport was back
on 30 Sep 2024 (93F).  The current Saturday forecast high is 88F.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  72  37  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  67  29  73  29 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  67  33  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  71  28  77  30 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  67  32  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  72  29  77  32 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  70  34  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  72  42  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  70  36  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  76  32  82  36 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  80  36  85  40 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  60  30  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  65  43  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  66  38  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  65  35  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  54  29  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  59  25  65  27 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  67  29  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  65  35  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  73  37  79  39 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  67  40  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  71  37  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  74  47  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  76  45  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  79  40  83  45 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  77  43  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  78  39  83  41 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  77  43  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  78  37  83  41 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  78  41  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  78  38  83  41 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  72  45  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  77  44  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  81  45  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  67  41  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  70  42  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  70  39  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  71  31  77  33 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  67  37  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  70  40  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  70  40  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  72  45  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  66  44  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  67  38  71  37 /   5   0   0   0
Raton...........................  73  35  76  36 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  72  35  77  36 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  70  37  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  77  45  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  72  41  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  79  43  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  75  43  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  77  45  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  78  44  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  78  42  85  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  79  44  84  46 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  81  44  88  50 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  77  46  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  75  45  83  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...52

Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated on or about Wednesday, April 9.