Shiprock, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

939
FXUS65 KABQ 301157 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
457 AM MST Thu Jan 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 447 AM MST Thu Jan 30 2025

- Scattered light snow showers will continue to create slick
  travel conditions around western and northern NM early this
  morning. Snow becomes confined to areas in and around the
  northern mountains during the afternoon hours, with areas of
  blowing snow reducing visibilities near Raton Pass.

- Gusty northwest winds develop during the afternoon, with the
  strongest winds in the central and south-central highlands where
  hazardous crosswinds will be present. There is a low chance of
  reduced visibility in blowing dust in these same areas.

- Rapid warming trend expected Friday through early next week.
  Record high temperatures may be threatened in some areas.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 248 AM MST Thu Jan 30 2025

The winter system will continue to make its way out east throughout
the day on Thursday with some light snow for western New Mexico
early in the morning and some lingering snow for the northern
mountains continuing into the afternoon. In the wake of the system,
breezy conditions throughout most of New Mexico on Thursday
afternoon, with stronger Wind Advisory gusts along south-central and
east-central parts of the state. Areas of blowing dust may reduce
visibilities and create hazardous driving conditions. Pleasant
weather for the rest of the period as conditions look to remain dry
and temperatures soar into the 60s and 70s, well above average for
this time of year and approaching record highs on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 248 AM MST Thu Jan 30 2025

An elongated upper level low remains over NM early this morning,
with the main circulation exiting NE NM. Light snow continues
across north central NM early this morning, but additional light
snow will develop through sunrise across western NM, including
Gallup, though amounts are expected to be light. As the low pulls
away through the day, orographic lift due to strong north to
northwest mid-level flow will keep snow showers persisting through
the afternoon across northern NM. The highest amounts will be on
west or northwest facing slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains as
well as over and just east of Raton Pass on the NM/CO border where
northerly upslope will exist. Areas of blowing snow will reduce
visibility near Raton Pass, especially this afternoon as northerly
winds increase. Gusts between 35 and 40 mph are expected, however,
given how strong the northerly flow is not far off the deck,
wouldn`t be surprised to see a few higher rogue gusts, even around
Raton. Elsewhere, gusty west to northwest winds will exist. With
higher mixing heights and a strong surface pressure gradient
along and just east of the Central Mountain Chain, wind gusts
between 50 and 55 mph are expected from KCQC southward to KSRR
and Elk as well as locations just east of this line. A Wind Advisory
is already in effect for these locations and will not be altered.
Areas of blowing dust are possible. Of greatest concern is around
Roswell where westerly gusts between 35 and 40 mph should loft dust
over the Roswell Relief Route as well as Highway 285.  The strong
winds, dust and snow should all come to an end Thursday evening.

Thursday night should be cool with excellent radiational cooling
conditions setting up. Friday will be much less active and
considerably warmer. All areas on Friday will be 5 to 15 degrees
warmer than today. Temperatures will be at or above normal areawide!
Mainly light winds and sunny skies are also on tap.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 AM MST Thu Jan 30 2025

Zonal flow will dominate the upper level synoptic pattern for most
of CONUS during the long term. For New Mexico, this translates to
relatively dry and stable conditions, along with intermittent
periods of breezy westerlies and intermittent high clouds from the
atmospheric river over the Pacific. A 1005 mb lee side surface
trough and 50 kt 700mb winds will help enhance surface winds over
the central highlands to the 20 to 30 kt range during Saturday
afternoon. With dewpoints still in the low teens and relative
humidity below 15%, these stronger winds will create elevated fire
weather concerns for a few hours along the eastern plains. Ensembles
are in pretty good agreement of pressure heights rising and slight
ridging building through the beginning of next week. With 500mb
heights approaching 578-580 dm (which would lie in the 90th
percentile for this time of year) temperatures look to warm up to
well above average. Bumped up temperatures along the eastern plains
a couple degrees each day as guidance has once again trended upward
with high temperatures. In addition, downsloping from westerlies
should aid in raising temperatures closer to higher end of guidance.
Monday looks to be the warmest day, with high confidence for several
locations around the state to approach or even surpass record highs.
Overall, highs around the state look to be about 20 degrees above
average for this time of year.

The forecast becomes a little more uncertain past Monday as ensemble
solutions begin to spread. A brief backdoor front on Tuesday looks
to drop temperatures slightly, but cluster analysis seems to be
split on whether anomalous upper level heights continue or if they
fall back to near normal levels. By midweek, a shortwave
perturbation looks to infiltrate the area and bring another round of
breezy westerlies as well as chances of precipitation for northern
New Mexico. In any case, the highest confidence in the forecast
remains in continued above average temperatures through the end of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 447 AM MST Thu Jan 30 2025

Light snow continues across northern NM this morning, with snow
tapering off across west central NM. Low VFR to MVFR cigs continue
to plague much of these areas. However, low clouds will diminish
across the west by early afternoon, but will persist across north
central and northeast NM. Snow and blowing snow will continue to
create low visibility and mountain obscurations through 00Z before
improving. Strong west to northwest winds will also develop late
this morning across all but northeast NM. Gusts between 25 and
35kt will be common, though areas from KCQC to KSRR, gusts up to
45kt will be possible. These winds will peak during the mid to
late afternoon hours. Blowing dust may develop, particularly
around KROW. Meanwhile, across northeast NM, strong northerly
winds with gusts near 35 kt will be common. All winds will slowly
diminish after sunset. Quiet conditions are expected tonight and
Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 AM MST Thu Jan 30 2025

Snow will continue across northern NM today, focusing on the
west/northwest slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains as well as
near Raton Pass. Strong northerly winds (gusts up to 40 mph) are
also expected around Raton Pass, while gusty west to northwest winds
will develop elsewhere. The strongest winds (gusts 50-55 mph) are
expected east of the Central Mountain Chain from Clines Corners
southward. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today for
most areas south of I-40. A warming trend begins on Friday and
continues through Monday while zonal flow aloft will persist through
at least the middle of next week. On Saturday, winds will increase
across east central NM. Sub-15% humidity will result in elevated to
critical fire weather conditions along the I-40 corridor. The
warming trend continues through Monday with near record heat
possible. High temperatures Monday afternoon will be 15 to 25
degrees above normal. Breezy to locally windy conditions on Sunday
across east central NM will result in elevated fire weather

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  46  15  49  20 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  43   6  51  10 /  40   0   0   0
Cuba............................  41  10  50  18 /  40   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  47   7  55  10 /  20   0   0   0
El Morro........................  42  14  52  21 /  40   0   0   0
Grants..........................  46   9  54  12 /  20   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  40  14  54  18 /  30   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  45  24  53  28 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  40  17  52  22 /  10   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  50  11  61  13 /  20   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  52  22  62  25 /  10   0   0   0
Chama...........................  37   8  47  14 /  80   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  40  24  48  26 /  30   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  41  20  54  26 /  10   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  36  13  47  19 /  80   0   0   0
Red River.......................  29   7  40  17 /  80   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  31  -1  45   7 /  60   0   0   0
Taos............................  38   7  48  11 /  50   0   0   0
Mora............................  40  22  56  24 /  30   0   0   0
Espanola........................  47  17  54  18 /  30   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  41  22  50  26 /  30   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  44  19  52  22 /  20   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  46  27  52  32 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  49  25  54  28 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  51  23  55  24 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  49  24  54  26 /  10   0   0   0
Belen...........................  53  18  55  19 /   5   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  49  22  54  25 /  10   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  51  18  54  19 /   5   0   0   0
Corrales........................  50  22  55  25 /  10   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  51  18  54  18 /   5   0   0   0
Placitas........................  44  23  51  28 /  10   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  48  24  53  26 /  10   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  53  25  57  27 /   5   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  41  22  50  26 /  10   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  43  23  50  27 /  10   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  42  21  51  21 /   5   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  46  14  55  14 /   5   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  39  20  51  22 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  45  20  53  23 /   5   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  44  18  52  24 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  47  25  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  39  24  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  35  20  54  26 /  60  20   0   0
Raton...........................  40  16  56  19 /  50  10   0   0
Springer........................  43  14  60  17 /  20   5   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  45  18  57  24 /   5   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  42  27  60  31 /  30  10   0   0
Roy.............................  43  21  56  22 /  20   5   0   0
Conchas.........................  51  22  63  29 /  10   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  50  23  61  31 /   5   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  51  23  63  30 /  10  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  52  27  63  30 /   5   5   0   0
Portales........................  53  25  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  52  22  61  25 /   5   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  57  27  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  50  27  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  47  25  61  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for NMZ205-
206.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for NMZ210-213-
214.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for NMZ203-
211-215-216-227.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening
for NMZ223-226-233-239-240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...34